The global molybdenum market is poised to hit US$466.2 Billion with a CAGR of 4.5% in the next decade (Figure 1).
Essential for enhancing the strength and resistance of steel, this transition metal is invaluable for construction and manufacturing.
Additionally, molybdenum serves as a crucial catalyst in various chemical processes, further strengthening its role in the current world.
This increased demand from these industries is driving the global market, highlighting molybdenum's pivotal role in modern industrial applications.
However, the current market sentiment suggests a scarcity of material, with the index hovering around US$22 per pound of molybdenum.
Pundits are concerned about looming supply deficits as mining operations struggle to ramp up production.
Figure 1: Global Molybdenum Market ( Source: Acumen Research)
Structural Shifts In Emerging Economies
Emerging economies such as China and India are undergoing structural shifts that are set to boost steel demand.
Rapid urbanisation in China and extensive infrastructure development in India are primary drivers.
These shifts create a robust need for steel-reinforced construction materials, directly impacting the molybdenum market.
As these economies continue to grow, the demand for steel and, consequently, molybdenum, is expected to rise significantly over the forecast period.
Deceleration Of Demand In China's Oil And Gas Sector
Despite the positive outlook, the molybdenum market faces challenges from the Chinese oil and gas sector.
There has been a noticeable deceleration in demand due to a decline in exploration and production activities.
Molybdenum steel bearings, heavily used in these sectors, are seeing reduced demand.
This slowdown in one of the largest consumers of molybdenum creates a mixed outlook for the metal's future, tempering market enthusiasm.
Price Fluctuations And Supply Constraints
In late 2022 and early 2023, molybdenum prices surged to levels reminiscent of the 2005-2008 period, clocking above $US 35/pound (Figure 2).
This price hike was driven by robust demand and tight supply conditions.
However, mid-2023 saw prices ease due to decreasing demand and increased production from Chinese mines.
The market remains vulnerable to supply shocks due to persistently low inventory levels.
Despite weak demand outside China in 2023, strong Chinese demand provided a significant offset, maintaining market stability.
Figure 2: Molybdenum prices since 2022 (Source: Red Door Research)
Rising Production Costs
Production costs for molybdenum have been rising, affecting the overall market dynamics.
Freeport-McMoRan, a major player, reported that primary mine costs have doubled since 2021 (Figure 3).
In China, rising costs are notable due to falling ore grades and increased environmental expenses.
From 2020 to 2023, global demand grew by 18%, driven primarily by China and Indonesia.
This demand surge, coupled with underperformance in by-product supply from copper mines in Chile,Peru and the USA, has led to low stocks, making the market susceptible to supply disruptions.
Figure 3: Molybdenum mine operating profit (Source: Freeport-McMoRan)
Chinese Market Influence
China has been a net importer of molybdenum since 2020, with import levels balancing out in 2021/22 but surging again in 2023.
The country's steady domestic demand growth and fluctuating primary supply are key market factors.
Despite declines in non-Chinese production, Chinese production continues to grow, accounting for over 45% of global output in the second half of 2023.
By-product supply showed growth in 2023 after two years of decline, and this trend is expected to accelerate this year.
Future Outlook
World molybdenum consumption is projected to grow by 4.8% in 2024, with significant recovery in Europe, North America, and Japan.
Since 2020, China and Indonesia have dominated growth, now accounting for nearly 75% of total usage.
Strong demand recovery, combined with declining supply, pushed the market into a deficit from 2021 to 2023.
While the deficit is shrinking as supply grows, the market is expected to balance in 2024/25. However, project delays remain a significant risk.
Industry Challenges And Concerns
The future output of molybdenum faces challenges, particularly from regions like Chile and Peru, due to declining ore grades and geopolitical instability.
North American producers such as Climax, Rio Tinto, and Thompson Creek/Centerra are facing several challenges as well, says analysts.
While summer activity typically remains stagnant, there is a prevailing belief that price increases are more likely than decreases.
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